GHRC REACTION REPORT BRIEF (RRB) No. 2025-R01 From Trade Realignment to Economic Restriction: Human Rights Risk Assessment of U.S.–China Tariff Escalation Date

GHRC REACTION REPORT BRIEF RRB No. 2025-R01:

From Trade Realignment to Economic Restriction: Human Rights Risk Assessment of U.S.–China Tariff Escalation Date

Issued: April 11, 2025

Classification: Public | Global Circulation

Threat Level: Level III – Strategic Disruption (High Probability of Economic Rights Violations and Regional Instability)

Prepared by: Office of Human Rights Intelligence & Research (OHRI)

In Coordination With:

• PEAC – Policy Enforcement & Accountability Commission

• OSFI – Office of Strategic Foresight & Innovation

• DAPA – Directorate of Advocacy & Public Affairs

🛡️ Commission Note In response to the escalating imposition of bilateral tariffs between the United States and the People's Republic of China—now reaching 145% and 125% respectively—the Global Human Rights Commission has formally activated its Strategic Disruption Review Mandate. This Reaction Report Brief has been issued to monitor, assess, and communicate the potential humanitarian fallout of these actions under GHRC’s global economic rights observatory program. The objective is to provide neutral, intelligence-driven insight into the evolving threat landscape, particularly as it pertains to civilian economic stability and labor integrity worldwide.

📜 Director’s Note Issued by Marcus L. Young, Executive Director, GHRC

At the Global Human Rights Commission, we do not chase headlines—we monitor patterns. What we are now witnessing is not simply economic policy; it is structural warfare unfolding without missiles. When tariff barriers reach levels that make trade unsustainable, we must call it what it is: restriction masquerading as regulation.

This is a warning—not about war, but about what war looks like without gunfire. Families won’t be displaced by bombs, but by inflation. Rights won’t be violated with bullets, but by the silent erosion of access and dignity.

This report is our formal entry into the global dialogue on economic policy as a human rights issue. The days of viewing trade as a matter for technocrats are over. It is time for the human rights community to assert itself into economic corridors where harm is often hidden in policy. GHRC is that insertion point.

We invite governments, multilateral institutions, economists, and civil society partners to join us in this analysis—and to act decisively in defense of economic justice.

Respectfully, Marcus L. Young

Executive Director

Global Human Rights Commission

(GHRC) info@TheGHRC.org | www.TheGHRC.org | 844-GHRC-ORG

Strategic Tensions: The U.S.–China "De Facto Blockade" symbolizing the escalating economic conflict between the two nations.

The U.S.–China De Facto Blockade is no longer theoretical — it’s strategic, deliberate, and escalating. This isn’t trade war. This is economic warfare.

I. Executive Summary As of April 2025, the United States has imposed cumulative tariffs totaling 145% on Chinese goods, while China has responded with 125% in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. These actions, though not formally recognized as a blockade, functionally restrict bilateral trade to economically prohibitive levels.

This marks a transition from trade realignment to a de facto economic restriction, carrying significant humanitarian, labor, and global economic justice risks.

The Global Human Rights Commission (GHRC) issues this Reaction Report Brief to provide a rapid, neutral analysis of the unfolding situation and its implications on vulnerable populations, with an assigned threat level of Level III – Strategic Disruption.

II. Context Overview Tariff Summary:

• U.S. imports from China now face up to 145% duties.

• Chinese imports from the U.S. face 125% tariff barriers.

• Strategic sectors affected: semiconductors, agriculture, energy components, transportation, and manufacturing inputs.

Global Trade Impact:

• Estimated $1.9 trillion in annual trade flow affected.

• Redirection of supply chains accelerating in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

III. Human Rights Risk Indicators Monitored by: OHRI | Enforcement Oversight by: PEAC

A. Labor Exploitation Risk Zones Relocation of manufacturing may increase reliance on informal labor markets in under-regulated regions. Countries at risk: Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kenya, Honduras.

Indicators:

• Forced overtime

• Child labor re-emergence

• Union suppression

B. Economic Displacement & Cost Shock Tariff pass-through effects estimated to raise global consumer prices 12%–17% in key sectors. Low-income households in the U.S., China, and trade-reliant nations projected to experience:

• Food insecurity

• Loss of employment

• Digital access limitations

C. Debt Diplomacy & Sovereignty Risk China’s parallel expansion via debt-based infrastructure deals in South-South regions raises the risk of:

• Undue legal arbitration

• National autonomy erosion

• Resource exploitation

IV. GHRC Threat Level Determination Current Threat Rating: LEVEL III – STRATEGIC DISRUPTION

Justification: This escalation disrupts international trade norms, threatens economic rights, and heightens geopolitical tensions without clear multilateral resolution pathways. Civilian impact is indirect but mounting, especially in labor-intensive economies and price-sensitive sectors.

V. Immediate Commission Recommendations

1. Human Rights Impact Watch Deployment

   • OHRI to deploy a rapid-assessment task force to monitor labor conditions and regional displacement in tariff-affected production zones.

2. Diplomatic Engagement & Neutral Mediation

   • DAPA to initiate neutral briefings with ASEAN, the AU, and ECOSOC on tariff-linked humanitarian disruptions.

3. Trade-Ethics Treaty Proposal (OSFI 2025 Draft)

   • OSFI to propose a multilateral framework requiring human rights clauses in all future global trade realignments.

4. Public Awareness & Civil Society Mobilization

   • PEAC to collaborate with civil society watchdogs to elevate visibility on:

     • Price shock inequality

     • Exploitative trade-by-redirection behavior

     • Data-backed risk indicators

VI. Conclusion What began as a geopolitical contest over supply chains has escalated into an economic restriction scenario with tangible humanitarian consequences. GHRC maintains a neutral stance on state policy objectives, but firmly asserts:

Trade policy is never isolated from human rights. Tariffs, when extreme and prolonged, become silent sanctions on civilian welfare.

This Reaction Report Brief is issued to inform governments, agencies, researchers, and the global public of the unfolding risks, and to reinforce the urgency of human-centered economic policy intervention.

Issued by: The Global Human Rights Commission (GHRC) Official Contact: info@TheGHRC.org | www.TheGHRC.org | 844-GHRC-ORG